By Guillermo Sohnlein, Consultant, RBC Signals
At RBC Signals, we recognize that we operate in a large global ecosystem that extends well beyond our ground station network, our team of strategic partners, and even our satellite operator customers. In order to properly plan for our long-term growth, we continually examine progress in other areas of the space industry. Looking back at 2019, we have identified five major trends that are significant in large part because they will likely continue to make an impact through 2020 and beyond.
Rise of Dedicated Small Launch Vehicles. Last year Rocket Lab conducted 10 successful launches, and it is anticipating twice as many this year. It will likely be joined by others making their maiden flights in 2020, including Virgin Orbit and Firefly Aerospace, as well as a handful of international hopefuls.
Emergence of Satellite Servicing & Debris Removal. After years of speculation and anticipation, the related fields of satellite servicing and active debris removal (ADR) moved much closer to reality in 2019. Northrop Grumman’s Mission Extension Vehicle-1 launched late in the year, and it successfully docked with the Intelsat 901 satellite last month. In the field of ADR, 2019 was especially busy, with the RemoveDEBRIS mission completing successful in-space technology demonstrations and two private ventures (Japan’s Astroscale and Switzerland’s ClearSpace) securing significant funding. There are several missions already on-orbit and scheduled for milestones in 2020, as well as others slated to launch later this year or early next year.
Start of LEO Mega-Constellation Competition. Several prominent companies have promoted ambitious plans to deploy mega-constellations of small satellites in LEO in order to provide connectivity to every corner of the globe. SpaceX officially kicked off the competition by launching its first 60 Starlink satellites in mid-2019, followed it up with 4 more launches in late-2019 and early-2020, and has plans for up to 20 more launches (each carrying 60 Starlink satellites) in 2020. Meanwhile, OneWeb launched 6 test satellites in 2019 and 34 operational satellites last month, and it has scheduled monthly launches of 34 satellites apiece for the rest of this year. Also, earlier this year China’s Galaxy Space launched its first technology demonstration satellite for its planned constellation of global 5G broadband coverage.
Disruption of GEO Markets. Despite the rebound in customer orders for new GEO satellites, this market segment experienced significant disruption in 2019 and will continue to do so through 2020. GEO satellite operators are facing pressures from their own customer markets, from emerging LEO competitors, and from new small GEO entrants. The fact that three prominent manufacturers (Airbus, Boeing, and Thales Alenia Space) unveiled “Small GEO” products last year is evidence of the disruption rolling through the industry.
Challenging Times for VC-Backed Ventures. The financial ROI on the billions of dollars invested in NewSpace ventures over the past 10 years has not yet materialized. Eventually, investors will become more cautious, and startups will face a tougher fundraising climate. In some cases, this may cause businesses to fail, as was the case with three high-profile ventures in 2019: Audacy (optical inter-satellie communications), LeoSat (internet broadband constellation), and Vector (dedicated small launch services). In 2020, there will likely be a tightening in the capital markets, which will result in more company failures, as well as some consolidation, with larger well-financed companies picking up floundering startups at bargain prices. A potential spinout and IPO for SpaceX’s Starlink could start providing liquidity events for investors in the sector.